Chapter 024: Hawks, Doves, and Pragmatists—Are You Well-Versed in Jiangdong’s Politics Too?

"Bo... Boweng, how can you be so certain that Sun Zhongmou will send Lu Su of all people?"

Liu Bei voiced the question shared by all three of them.

"Well, about that..."

Xiao He took a sip of wine to buy time to formulate his response. This matter of Lu Su truly required a careful explanation; otherwise, Guan Yinping would later hound him with relentless questions about whether he was truly a disciple of an immortal. After organizing his thoughts for a moment, Xiao He finally spoke:

"It is like this: as far as I know, the forces of Jiangdong can be divided into three factions—the Hawks, the Doves, and the Pragmatists. This Lu Su belongs to..."

"Wait a moment."

Liu Bei interrupted, his face full of confusion. "Boweng, what do you mean by these 'Hawks' and 'Doves'?"

Zhao Yun and Guan Yinping were equally bewildered. Xiao He gathered his thoughts once more before explaining:

"The so-called Hawks, or the War Party, are led by Zhou Yu and consist mostly of military officers. As the name implies, they advocate for seizing Jingzhou by force. Whether it is you, my lord, or Liu Qi, they will go to war with whoever stands in their way. Even against an opponent as formidable as Cao Cao, the Hawks under Zhou Yu fear nothing; they are ready to fight at a moment's notice."

He took another sip of wine to moisten his throat and continued:

"As for the Doves, or the Peace Party, they are led by Zhang Zhao and are comprised mostly of civil officials, including many prominent noble families of Jiangdong. These people believe that since Cao Cao has already unified the North, his conquest of the South is inevitable. They advocate for Sun Quan to submit to the trend of the times and surrender to Cao Cao, so as to preserve their lives and ensure their wealth and status."

Having finished with the first two, Xiao He raised his tone for emphasis:

"As for this Lu Su, he belongs to the Pragmatists. Being pragmatic means being practical—neither fearing Cao Cao like a tiger and surrendering, nor blindly overestimating themselves and inviting war. Given the current situation in Jingzhou, if we are destroyed by Cao Cao, even if Sun Quan manages to take Jiangxia, he would immediately have to face Cao Cao’s 150,000-strong army alone. He would truly understand the meaning of 'when the lips are gone, the teeth are cold.' Therefore, from a pragmatic standpoint, this is not the time for Sun Quan to covet Jingzhou. The wisest choice is to form an alliance with you, my lord, and let us serve as the vanguard in the North to block Cao Cao’s blade. Once our common enemy, Cao Cao, has retreated, he can then decide based on the reality of the situation whether to turn against you and seize Jingzhou."

Hearing this, Liu Bei’s expression cleared, mixed with deep amazement. He was, of course, well-acquainted with the heroes of Jiangdong—Zhou Yu, Zhang Zhao, Cheng Pu... even this Lu Su, whose reputation was less prominent, was a name he had heard of. But that was all—he had only heard of them. Yet, Xiao He had categorized them into Hawks, Doves, and Pragmatists. He even possessed an unfathomable, near-miraculous understanding of their individual stances and ideologies!

"I did not expect that not only would Boweng be so well-versed in the affairs of Jingshang, but he would also see through the situation in Jiangdong as if it were right before his eyes. How exactly does he do it?"

Liu Bei’s heart surged with excitement. He looked at Xiao He again, finding him increasingly inscrutable. After a long while, Liu Bei calmed his nerves and asked:

"Then, in your opinion, to which faction does that master of Jiangdong, Sun Zhongmou, belong?"

At the mention of Sun Quan, Xiao He merely sneered:

"This Sun Quan? He belongs to no faction. He is his own faction—the Opportunists."

"Opportunists?" Liu Bei’s eyes, which had just cleared, clouded over again.

"To be an opportunist is to seek advantage through manipulation. As far as I know, Sun Quan has no fixed stance or ideology. Whether it is war, alliance, or peace, he does whatever serves him best. Now that Cao Cao’s 150,000 troops are marching south, claiming they will flatten the South and unify the realm, Sun Quan’s immediate interest is to drive Cao Cao away and hold onto his own corner of Jiangdong. Thus, Sun Quan’s interests align perfectly with Lu Su’s pragmatism; the two will surely see eye to eye immediately. That is why I can assert that Sun Quan will take the initiative to form an alliance with you to resist the Cao bandits, and why he will certainly send Lu Su as his envoy."

Xiao He let out a long breath and downed two cups of wine. At last, he had brought his reasoning full circle and made it hold water.

"Having heard your words, I am enlightened. I finally understand the lords and ministers of Jiangdong." All doubt had vanished from Liu Bei’s eyes, replaced by pure wonder. "Boweng, how exactly did you..."

Liu Bei had wanted to ask how Xiao He, living in seclusion in the wilderness, could have such keen insight into the affairs of Jiangdong thousands of miles away. Did he truly possess the divine power of prophecy? Or, despite living in the deep mountains, did he have eyes everywhere, constantly monitoring the world?

"Strategist Kongming once said that Boweng possesses extraordinary talents and is unfathomable. Since he chooses to avoid the topic, I would only be wasting my breath by asking..."

Thinking this, Liu Bei suppressed his curiosity and simply asked: "Since Lu Su has come on Sun Quan’s orders to join forces with me, how do you suggest I respond?"

Xiao He feigned another sip of wine. With the bloody precedent of the sneak attack on Jiangling and the betrayal of the Lord of the Beautiful Beard, one would have to be foolish indeed to treat Sun Quan as a true ally. However, given the current situation and the common threat of Cao Cao’s massive army, temporary mutual utilization was not entirely out of the question.

He set down his cup and spoke unhurriedly:

"Our primary concern right now is to concentrate all our strength on holding Xiangfan and repelling Cao Cao. Sun Quan wants to use us to hold back Cao Cao so he does not have to face the brunt of the Cao army himself. Since we share a common interest, a temporary alliance with Sun Quan can be considered a win-win."

Liu Bei nodded slightly, clearly agreeing. After all, with only 30,000 men, he had to withstand 150,000 Cao troops while simultaneously blocking the 30,000 Jingzhou troops of Liu Cong; the pressure was immense. Reducing the number of enemies was a priority.

"However," Xiao He added with a firm tone, "when you negotiate with Lu Su later, you must maintain one bottom line: the Jiangdong army must not be allowed to send a single soldier into Jiangxia!"

Liu Bei’s eyes narrowed, not immediately grasping the reason.

"Sun Quan has always coveted Jingzhou. He will inevitably use the excuse of 'providing assistance' to send troops into Jiangxia to help with the defense. His goal is twofold: first, if our situation turns dire, he can quickly send troops up the Han River to reinforce Xiangyang. Second, he wants to use the opportunity to stretch his reach into Jiangxia. It is easy to invite a god, but hard to send one away; once the Jiangdong army is stationed in Jiangxia, do you think it will be easy to sweep them out? If you defeat Cao Cao in the future and Sun Quan decides to turn on you, he could seize Xiakou at any moment and take all of Jiangxia overnight. At that point, Jiangdong’s elite navy could reach Xiangyang in two days to cut off the Han River, and reach Jiangling in three days to blockade the Yangtze. Would we even have time to react? Therefore, your bottom line must be: we can be allies, but not a single Jiangdong soldier shall step foot in Jiangxia!"